Hi everybody! ššæ
Every September, Appleās iPhone event gives us a glimpse of their vision of the future. This year, though, the big event is happening in October, instead!
For the time being, weāll have to keep ourselves entertained!
Youāll have to settle for my vision instead. āŗļø Thatās why youāre subscribed! š
Itās hard to tackle the entire future all at once, so I start this week by looking at games and development:
The Future of Gaming: Faster Horse, or Clever Crossbreed?
The real revolution will happen in the household, with family members you love, or friends from school you invited over to play. It will accelerate not with faster internet connectivity, but with more informed, satisfying real-world interaction. Gaming will advance not at the speed of a processor, but at the speed of action away from the screen. There will be eSports athletes and celebrity gamer-creators, but the vast majority of players will be people who are more motivated than ever toĀ liveĀ because of what they can achieve in a game.
The takeaway is that tech specs weāre used to seeing ā CPU and GPU ā donāt define how people will interact with the technology, or what the developers will make. Instead, look at the chips that arenāt even marketably named, like the Apple U1 chip, for a glimpse at what kinds of experiences will be possible! In gaming, in particular, I think wearables and integrations in daily life will drive more mainstream players than the next Sony or Microsoft console!
One wearable thatās coming next year is the Apple AR glasses currently in development in Sunnyvale. I recorded a podcast with Guilherme Rambo @_inside on Twitter, who spelunks and develops for Apple platforms like the Mac and iPhone:
NokoPod 1: ARBuddy - AR Platform of the Future!
The takeaway here is that development tools and distribution will have to evolve with the platform. You canāt just beam code from your computer to the glasses, wirelessly, and reach a fast iteration cycle key to development. I imagine some wiring and simulation to come to help us prototype our apps on the platform! Gui tells us what apps he has in mind, and how he goes from idea in the shower to an app thousands want to use.
If you enjoyed this podcast on AR, Gui goes further in a podcast with John Sundell, Swift developer:
https://wwdcbysundell.com/2019/gui-rambo-on-realitykit/
āThe combination of my belief in a future where we have AR glasses made by Apple, and the introduction of these new technologies, is what makes me so excited.ā ~Gui
Speaking of gamesā¦
āVideo games are just one example of media entertainment content that has become more a more attractive leisure choice as a result of advances in internet and mobile device technology.ā
https://kortina.nyc/essays/kinky-labor-supply-and-the-attention-tax/
āThe power Fortnite wields through its online community is nothing short of epic. If you have kids between 10 and 20, you may be scared of how addictive Fortnite is. You will have no doubt that among younger people it is a major power.ā
https://ia.net/topics/monopolies-apple-and-epic
Speaking of Fortnite and its influence, Matthew Ball discusses the influence of software developers on kids today, and how Nintendo compares with other gaming companies like Epic. (Thanks to David Vargas for sharing this article!)
https://www.matthewball.vc/all/onnintendo
āBut irrespective of the success of these extensions, the majority of kids today are growing up with Fortnite, Minecraft, and Roblox.ā
Speaking of developmentā¦
āYou gotta admit it takes guts to lay out that argument on your company blog when the future of your business depends on the kind of day your next anonymous App Store reviewer is having.ā ~Tyler on Epicās Blog Strategy
https://tyler.io/epic-blog-post/
How will we pay for games? Is subscription software the standard of the future?
āA common refrain from customers is they just want to pay for an app one time. I GET IT. But if we, developers, don't get paid for our time, it is simply unsustainable to ship updates. And every app out there will 100% eventually die and cease to work without maintenance work. The breakneck pace of iOS ensures that.ā
https://tyler.io/subscriptions-or-bust/
If youāve ever wondered why so many games and media services are going subscription-only, iA Writerās blog explains the rationale quite well:
āMoving to subscriptions wreaks havoc every time a developer does it. Users protest and trash the developer. You can survive the anger waves, but youāll keep some heavy scars. Why do developers switch when they know that their customers hate subscriptions?ā
Apple takes 15% instead of 30% of a developerās revenue if they offer subscriptions. That in itself is reason enough for developers to switch to subscriptions. At 30% your chances to make a profit ā and that means: running a business ā are hair-thin.
Apple is more likely to promote you on the App Store if you have a subscription-based app because they see that with this model they can make a lot of money. Being promoted on App Stores, in Key Notes, in Apple Stores, and in marketing materials is invaluable.
As bad comes to worse, if Apple doesnāt promote you, you have to spend money on App Store Search Ads, which takes another heavy cut away from your revenue. Are you feeling the pain?
Apple doesnāt offer the ability to let users pay for upgrades. A paid app that runs out of sales because it saturated its reach thus has to convince everyone from the existing, loved app to switch to the new, unfamiliar one. Good luck with that.
Subscription-based apps are listed under free, which is misleading and causes a lot of confusion, but it gives them additional exposure. That makes users click.
https://ia.net/topics/subscription-or-no-subscription
Games are so fascinating because they represent the cutting edge of technology, but we mustnāt forget they also provide a safe, enjoyable place for kids, families, and friends to enjoy each other! š®
ā³Sometimes, the key to what lies ahead in the future is already in our past. āļø
Thatās all for this week! Thanks for those of you who made it this far! ššæ
Does anything else about the future excite you?
Maybe you can speak next weekās topic into existence! š
āThe best way to predict the future is to create it.ā
ā¦Just remember to enjoy the present while youāre at it! š
-Noko